Will it take 5 wins to be qualified for Elite 15 majors next season?

I stay in close contact with a lot of Elite 15 pros, and many of them are convinced it will take five standard race wins, or roughly 525 points, to secure an Elite 15 spot for next season.

That is a great target. It is a safe strategy, and if an athlete can get there, they should. But the data suggests it probably won’t actually take that many points.

At the moment, the projected cut-off sits at roughly 509 points on the men’s side and 514 points on the women’s side.

Yes, there are still plenty of races left. But there are also limits to how many meaningful points are still available.

What the simulation includes

The ROX Rankings simulation dataset begins in June 2025 and includes last year’s World Championships. There are still 18 standard races left before scores start expiring.

This year’s Worlds will replace last year’s Worlds, which will reshuffle the top 10 a little, but it is unlikely to have much influence on the actual cut-off or bubble.

Men’s side: likely movement, but not a major cut-off shift

There are a few important caveats on the men’s side.

Hunter McIntyre and Alex Roncevic currently have only four race scores, with 425 and 435 points respectively. It is reasonable to assume both will fill their five-race quota and move into the top five. That will push everyone else down a spot and lift the cut-off slightly.

There are also a few rising athletes with only three or four scores who could still move into the 515-point range — names like Gabe Heck, Fred Dube, and Rich Ryan.

But that kind of movement will likely just add more athletes into the same cluster around the bubble rather than meaningfully changing where the bubble sits.

Women’s side: same pattern

The women’s side looks very similar.

Alyssa McElheny, Annie Emilsson, Saskia Millard, and Rachel Wade all have the ability and the numbers to move into the 515–520 range.

That could push the cut-off up a few points, but again, it is more likely to create more clustering around the bubble than to suddenly force the cut-off to 525.

The points left on the table are limited

This is the key point.

Even if you extend the view back a full year, as you can on Maarten Enthoven’s rankings page, the bubble still sits in a very similar range.

That makes sense. Scores are constantly expiring, and most athletes are no longer simply adding points — they are trying to upgrade existing scores.

In the ROX Rankings dataset, there are roughly 80 races accounted for, including every Major, Regional, and World Championship, plus the standard races already completed. There are 18 standard races left.

If you total the meaningful point scores — roughly 103 points and above — from the races already included, you get around 14,000 points. The remaining significant points available from the races still to come add up to only about 1,500 points, or roughly 10% of the relevant points in the whole season.

That is not nothing, but it is not enough to dramatically change the cut-off either.

Why the cut-off probably won’t jump much

A lot of the remaining races are in more isolated locations, and it is unlikely that large numbers of top pros will travel to all of them.

The races that are left in stronger regions will be much harder to win, and once expirations begin to hit, it becomes even less likely that one athlete will stack multiple new wins before the bubble starts correcting itself.

That is why the most likely outcome is not a huge rise in the cut-off.

Instead, the remaining points will mostly pull a few more athletes into the same crowded range around the bubble.

The takeaway

Targeting 525 points is still a very smart strategy. It gives an athlete security, and it may help them stay in the Elite 15 longer once they get there.

But based on the data, the actual cut-off will likely rise only slightly, not dramatically.

There simply are not enough points left on the table, and because most relevant athletes have already filled their five-race quota, the remaining wins are more likely to tighten the cluster around the bubble than to push the bubble much higher.

In other words:

525 is a safe target.
But the evidence suggests it probably won’t be necessary.